Friday, December 18, 2009

Hold the hysteria

With the hype in Copenhagen peaking, and the president of the United States pledging to take billions of dollars from American families and send it to thugs and dictators in Third World nations, it is time for a dose of reality.
All this is about an increase in the average of temperature readings taken at various points on the Earth over a period of 150 years.
The increase amounts to 0.6 degrees Celsius.
The increase occurred since the end of a period of global cooling, so severe that it is referred to as "the little Ice Age."
I don't believe any alarmist would take issue with the above statements.
Now, ask yourself:
Is there only one optimum temperature that the Earth is supposed to have over millions of years?
If so, is that temperature what it is now, what it was 150 years ago or what it will be in 150 years?
Alarmists forecast the future by creating computer models. In other words, they feed literally thousands of assumptions into computers and use those to mathematically project what the Earth's temperature will be in a century.
Obviously, the accuracy of that forecast depends on each of those thousands of assumptions being accurate.
The way you test computer models is to input actual data from the past to see if they can "predict" -- retroactively -- what we know is happening today.
These models have failed those tests. They failed to predict the cooling of the past decade, for example.
You don't have to be a scientist to discern the problem. Still, 31,000 scientists have signed a petition saying that there is insufficient evidence of global warming being caused by human activity.
It is easy to understand why Americans place global warming very low on their list of priorities.
Alarmists say we must spend trillions of dollars even if the chance that they are right is 1 percent.

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